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Dubai property sales picked up in October. In the first 27 days of the month, registered sales were 18 per cent higher than in the same days of September. Ready homes did most of the work. Prices did not follow. They have held about flat since the summer.
Partly. The Dubai property market recovery so far is a recovery in sales, not in prices. The market is also still well below its pace before the war.
The Dubai Land Department (DLD) is the government office that records every property sale. From 1 to 27 October 2026, it registered about AED 29.9 billion of sales. In the same 27 days of September, the total was about AED 25.3 billion.1 October had already passed the whole of September, which closed at about AED 28.8 billion.1
That is a real change after a slow summer. It is not a return to the start of the year. In January and February 2026, before the regional conflict, Dubai registered about AED 66 billion of sales a month.2
Monthly sales in Dubai, 2026
Owners ask the same question on local forums almost every week. Is now a good time to buy or sell, and how do things look for sellers? The data gives a split answer. Buyers are back. Prices have not moved.
The first months of 2026 were a record pace. Then the boom stopped. MEED reported that the market came to "an abrupt halt" when the regional conflict began, and that prices after inflation fell back to mid-2025 levels.3 The full picture of that slowdown is in what the UBS bubble index says about Dubai in 2026.
Sales fell first. In the DLD data, monthly sales dropped from about AED 72 billion in January to about AED 29 billion in May.2 From June to September, the monthly total stayed between about AED 27.6 billion and AED 34.3 billion.1
The Dubai property market after the war is therefore a market that found a floor in the summer. In October, sales moved up again for the first time since July.
A little, by most counters, and not in a straight line.
Cavendish Maxwell, a property consultancy, put the average sale price at AED 1,636 per square foot in August 2026. That was 1.7 per cent lower than a year earlier, the first fall of this kind since February 2021.4
Savills looked at the third quarter. Average apartment prices fell 4.8 per cent from the second quarter, to AED 1,817 per square foot. Villas and townhouses fell 3.3 per cent. But when Savills compared similar homes only, apartments were down 1.7 per cent and villas were unchanged.5 Part of the headline fall came from a different mix of homes being sold.
The DLD file gives the same message for ready flats, meaning flats that are already built. Their median price was about AED 1,402 per square foot in June 2026 and about AED 1,411 in October.1 A median can move when a different mix of homes sells, so read it as a direction. The direction is flat.
So the answer to "are Dubai property prices falling" in late 2026 is this. Dubai property prices after the war eased a little, and in the last five months they have barely moved.
The October increase came mostly from homes that are already built.
In the DLD data, ready homes accounted for about AED 18.4 billion of sales from 1 to 27 October. With four days still to go, that was already close to July, the strongest summer month at about AED 18.6 billion.1 Off-plan homes, which are sold before they are built, made up about 38 per cent of sales by value in October. In the summer months, the share was about half.1
Who is selling: built homes or homes on paper
Savills saw the same shift a quarter earlier. The value of ready-home sales rose from AED 21.3 billion in the second quarter to AED 25.1 billion in the third.5 Over the same period, developers launched only about 5,000 new homes, against about 36,400 in the second quarter.5 Fewer launches means fewer off-plan sales to register.
Andrew Cummings of Savills described the market as "becoming more selective". He said buyers are putting more weight on "pricing, location, quality and long-term value".5
Slower launches do not mean less building. Projects already sold are still being built.
On 26 October 2026, Nakheel awarded a contract worth more than AED 950 million to build 617 homes at Bay Grove Residences on Dubai Islands. The two phases are due in late 2028 and the second quarter of 2029. With an earlier contract, Nakheel has now awarded more than AED 1.75 billion of work for all 1,154 homes in the project.6 How developers pay for the stretch between sales and completion is covered in developer finance in Dubai.
Across the market, Savills counts more than 525,000 homes scheduled for delivery between 2027 and 2030.5 The pressure that this delivery wave puts on prices and on buyers is explained in the delivery wave and the capital gap behind it.
Buyers of off-plan homes also ask whether every project will actually be built. Contract awards like Nakheel's are one part of the answer. The delivery dates on each project are the other.
This stage of the Dubai real estate market recovery, where sales recover before prices, has one practical effect. Buyers are back, but they take more time and they compare more.
For an owner who wants to sell, three things follow.
Valuation. A valuation is an estimate of what a home is worth. Valuers look at recent sales of similar homes. With prices flat, a valuation today is unlikely to be higher than it was in the summer.
Time to sell. Ready homes are selling again, but buyers are selective. A home that is priced above recent sales may wait.
The cost of a deadline. If the owner must sell by a fixed date, a selective buyer has the stronger hand. Part of the gap between asking price and sale price can come from that pressure, not from the market.
Many owners who sell in a market like this do not sell because of the market. They sell because they need capital by a date: a payment on another property, a business need, or a family plan.
There is another route. The owner can raise capital against a property they already hold, and decide later whether to sell. This is how NEMAX works.
NEMAX Finance is an asset-backed co-financing platform. It is not a bank. It looks at the property first, not at the owner's salary or residency.
For the term of the deal, the property is held by an SPV, a separate company set up for this one deal. The SPV is registered in ADGM, the Abu Dhabi Global Market. NEMAX holds a share in that company for the term of the deal, and the owner keeps the use of the property. The co-financing is secured by the property. LTV, the share of the property's value that capital is set against, stays at or below 70 per cent. The full route is explained in raising capital against a property you already own.
If the only reason to sell in a slow month is a payment date, check first what the property can support. NEMAX reviews the property, its value and the realistic exit, and confirms in writing what it can support.
This route has limits. It fits an owner who holds a property with real value and needs capital for a defined period with a clear exit. It does not fit an owner who expects prices to fall and wants to leave the market. In that case, selling may be the right decision. It is also not a way to buy a property with no equity in it.
Buyers have more choice than in early 2026. Sales rose in October, but prices of ready flats stayed about flat, around AED 1,400 per square foot.1 A seller with time can wait for the right buyer. A seller with a fixed date has the weaker hand.
It happens when the price paid is above what similar homes now sell for. Check registered sales of similar units in the same building before setting a price. If the only reason to sell is a payment date, raising capital against the property is another route.
Sales fell first. Monthly sales went from about AED 72 billion in January to about AED 29 billion in May.2 After inflation, prices fell back to mid-2025 levels.3 From June, sales found a floor, and in October they rose again.1
There is no official figure for time on the market. Ready homes are selling more than in the summer: about AED 18.4 billion from 1 to 27 October.1 A home priced close to recent registered sales sells sooner than one priced above them.
A small Dubai real estate market correction, by most counters. Cavendish Maxwell measured the first year-on-year fall in average prices since February 2021, 1.7 per cent in August 2026.4 Savills found similar apartments down 1.7 per cent in the third quarter, and villas unchanged.5
Prices eased after the conflict began, and real prices fell back to mid-2025 levels.3 Since June, ready flat prices in the DLD data have stayed about flat.1 The next move depends on demand and on how much new supply arrives.
Sales have started to. October sales were about 18 per cent higher than in the same days of September.1 They are still about half the pace of January and February, so a full recovery has not happened yet.12
Not fully. Sales have recovered part of the fall, but prices have not risen. Ready flats sold for about AED 1,400 per square foot in both June and October 2026.1
In October 2026, sales are rising again and ready homes lead. Off-plan sales are about 38 per cent of sales value, down from about half in the summer.1 Developers launched far fewer new projects in the third quarter.5
From 1 to 27 October 2026, the DLD registered about AED 29.9 billion of sales across 10,188 deals.1 In the same days of September, it registered about AED 25.3 billion across 9,788 deals.1 Dubai real estate transactions this week or last week move a lot, so compare months, not single weeks.
No. Prices eased a little and sales fell from a record start to the year. A crash would show falling prices in every counter. In the third quarter, Savills found villa prices unchanged for similar homes.5
If the property is sound and the need is capital by a date, selling while prices are flat is not the only option. NEMAX reviews the property, its value and the realistic exit, then confirms in writing what co-financing secured by the property can support, with LTV at or below 70 per cent.
Apply for capital →
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